The Russian invasion of Ukraine did something to European identity that decades of integration summits could not: it made the identity felt. Geopolitical pressure is, historically, the most reliable accelerant of collective identity formation. Europe had been drifting toward comfortable ambiguity about what it stood for. Russia’s decision to wage a full-scale territorial war on a European neighbor clarified the question with brutal efficiency. The response was not uniform. Hungary maintained its equivocal position, demonstrating that the pressure was not absolute.

Russia thought it had a windfall coming. When the Iran war effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and sent oil prices surging, Moscow was positioned to pocket around $760 million a day from energy exports. War elsewhere was becoming a revenue stream. Ukraine had other plans. In the span of five days, Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s two largest Baltic oil export facilities — Ust-Luga and Primorsk — three separate times. Then came a fourth hit: the KINEF Kirishi refinery, one of Russia’s largest, processing around 350,000 barrels a day.

Introduction The new CRS report Ukrainian Military Performance and Outlook delves into the multifaceted evaluation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ (UAF) performance since the commencement of Russia’s invasion in 2022. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the challenges, advancements, strategic implications, and future outlook concerning personnel, equipment, U.S., and Western security assistance, alongside a detailed assessment of current military performance. Overview The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have demonstrated notable resilience and tactical prowess in defending against and pushing back Russian forces, despite initial disadvantages.