A system does not collapse the moment it is attacked from the outside. It collapses when it can no longer agree with itself on how to survive. What is now emerging inside Iran looks dangerously close to that threshold. Reports from Iran International describe a deepening confrontation between Masoud Pezeshkian and Ahmad Vahidi over the conduct of the war and its economic consequences. According to sources, the president has openly warned that without a ceasefire, Iran’s economy could collapse within weeks—three to four at most.

Russia thought it had a windfall coming. When the Iran war effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and sent oil prices surging, Moscow was positioned to pocket around $760 million a day from energy exports. War elsewhere was becoming a revenue stream. Ukraine had other plans. In the span of five days, Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s two largest Baltic oil export facilities — Ust-Luga and Primorsk — three separate times. Then came a fourth hit: the KINEF Kirishi refinery, one of Russia’s largest, processing around 350,000 barrels a day.

Iran has proposed amendments to a draft resolution on dark shipping that is due to be discussed at the upcoming meeting of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Assembly. The proposed amendments would strip out all mention of illicit operations, dark fleets, and maritime fraud, and would instead only refer to “substandard ship-to-ship transfers.” Iran relies on a so-called “dark fleet” of tankers that operate outside of mainstream tanker markets because of US sanctions.