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      <title>El Niño Is Official and Cocoa Is Down 34%: Soft Markets Are Pricing Inventory, Not Forecasts</title>
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      <pubDate>Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      
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      <description>NOAA&amp;rsquo;s Climate Prediction Center moved from El Niño Watch to El Niño Advisory on 11 June. The distinction is not cosmetic. A watch says an event is likely to form; an advisory says it has arrived. The June discussion put a 63% probability on a very strong event during November through January, which would put it among the largest in the record back to 1950, and a 97% chance conditions persist into early spring 2027.</description>
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