NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center moved from El Niño Watch to El Niño Advisory on 11 June. The distinction is not cosmetic. A watch says an event is likely to form; an advisory says it has arrived. The June discussion put a 63% probability on a very strong event during November through January, which would put it among the largest in the record back to 1950, and a 97% chance conditions persist into early spring 2027.